Present tense: The future of terrorism

Devastation and rubble after the 9/11 attack on the World Trade Center Photo by the United States Department of Justice, courtesy of Creative Commons

Terrorism wasn’t addressed at length by President Obama in his State of the Union speech last Wednesday. He did mention that in the last year, hundreds of al-Qaeda fighters and affiliates, including many senior leaders, have been captured or killed, more than in 2008. As we reported last week, Obama is sending 30,000 more troops to Afghanistan to continue the war on terror.

The subject of terrorism has been framed in different contexts throughout the decade. The discussion has been focused on the question, "Are the threats we face more the nature of criminal acts or more the nature of war?" There are different strategies, policies and solutions for both.

Michael Swetnam, a member of the Technical Advisory Group to the United States Senate Special Select Committee on Intelligence, said terrorism is a criminal act and an act of war.

“We shouldn’t let the consideration that it’s a criminal act prevent us from using our war powers when necessary and visa versa,” he said.

Terrorists have been able to use simple devices for their attacks. Bomb parts come in all forms and can be constructed from common household products. Over the past decade, terrorists have gotten more advanced and creative in how they carry out their plans.

According to Swetnam, a basic tenet of terrorism is killing one person and frightening thousands. “The effect of terrorism has grown such that you don’t have to actually succeed in killing people,” he said. “The attempt—even when it fails--is causing great harm and we need to learn not to just deal with preventing terrorist acts, but figure out a way to not allow them to cause a disproportionate effect on our society."

There are many terrorist groups in the United States and abroad, but, al-Qaeda “really is the most dangerous in-bound threat to the United States,” according to the Honorable Charles E. Allen, the former assistant director of the CIA. In the last few weeks, al-Qaeda has been the focus in congressional hearings, terrorism experts in the news media and journal reviews directed by President Obama. There have also been efforts to improve watch-listing and screening at airports.

World Chart: Number of terrorist incidents from January to June 2009 Photo by Emilfaro, courtesy of Creative Commons

Allen said al-Qaeda currently has a dangerous, but damaged leadership.

“We must remain calm, work to be a society far more resilient than we have demonstrated as Americans to date,” he said. “We must recognize that al-Qaeda is not regressing in some grand strategy of exhausting the United States. We must be ever more vigilant, and take seriously that al-Qaeda will at some point will conduct a successful attack here.”

In 2006, al-Qaeda adopted the strategy of recruiting Westerners to carry out terrorist plots in and outside of the U.S. Radicalized imams with influence and extremist Web sites have also been used. Imams who are American or speak English, such as Anwar al-Awlaki, have a big impact on younger generations.

Through events at the end of 2009, Al-Qaeda proves it is still very dangerous and powerful. On Nov. 7, Maj. Nidal Malik Hasan, 39, opened fire at a military processing center at Fort Hood. He’s an American-born citizen and never deployed outside the U.S. On Christmas Day, a Nigerian engineering student, Umar Farouk Abdul Mutallab, 23, tried to blow up a transatlantic aircraft in a suspected al-Qaeda plot. On December 30, seven CIA agents were killed and six others injured at a Forward Operating Base in Khost Province, Afghanistan. It was the result of a terrorist attack.

The outlook for 2010 and beyond is that al-Qaeda is damaged, yet still dangerous. It has established new capabilities in Yemen, new strategies of recruiting and training Westerners and sending them into Europe and North America. Al-Qaeda also has a presence in North Africa. This is why many still believe right now is not the time to stop fighting.

“The United States has friends and allies all over the world. We have commitments to them, we have political, economic, cultural engagements—all of these things and we have an obligation and national interest to help them defend themselves and also to defend ourselves in the process,” said Robert Godec, U.S. Ambassador to Iraq. “There is no doubt in my mind that simply to let al-Qaeda alone, so to speak, would not work. Al-Qaeda would attack our allies, they would seek to attack the United States, they would follow us back home. There is no escaping this fight. It is critical that we pursue it again with all the instruments in our disposal and that we do so with close cooperation with our allies. That is the way that we’re going to defeat this insidious group.”

Al-Qaeda is still the greatest threat today, especially in Yemen. Dennis Blair, the director of national intelligence, said in the annual threat assessment before the Senate Intelligence Committee that there are three main threats al-Qaeda poses: trained terrorists from their home base, cyberattacks and terrorists with a clean background.

If terrorism flourishes and reigns in North Africa and other countries, the last thing the United States wants is to have people look back, point the finger and say America did nothing.

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