Obama and Iraq: Promises vs. Pragmatism

Barack Obama has won the presidency, but now the real work, to fulfill his campaign promises, begins. The President-elect’s plan for withdrawal from Iraq is clear, but may be determined by external factors.

Experts agree that Obama intends to stand by his campaign promise to, according to his transition website, “end the war in Iraq responsibly,” but they concur that how quickly this end occurs depends largely on the situation on the ground in Iraq.

According to Obama’s election campaign website, the main element of this plan is a “responsible and phased” withdrawal of U.S. troops, to begin as soon as possible.

Obama initially set 2010 as the date by which the majority of U.S. troops would be deployed out of Iraq with one important caveat - that this would be contingent on the situation on the ground.

“[Obama] needs to keep enough wiggle-room in his positions [on Iraq] to have the possibility of responding to conditions on the ground,” said Tamara Wittes of the Brookings Institution. “That’s the only responsible thing to do as commander in chief.”

James Carafano of the Heritage Foundation agreed that Obama was shrewd to leave some leeway in his plan. He predicted that many of Obama’s decisions on the region will be formed only after hearing from his military advisors.

“It’s hard to believe the president will dismiss the advice of his senior military advisers on this,” said Carafano.

Carafano predicted that Obama will be likely to keep General David Petraeus as head of United States Central Command, and may keep Robert Gates as Secretary of Defense.

On the broader issue of whether Obama will withdraw troops, Carafano said the president-elect is likely to fulfill his promise because the situation in Iraq has improved to the point where such withdrawal is possible.

“[Iraq] is at the tipping point,” said Carafano. “[Obama] is just lucky, in the sense that the facts on the ground have caught up with his rhetoric. Now he can do what he wants and America has (still) accomplished its goals in Iraq.”

Carafano pointed out that were Obama to have taken office in 2007, he would not have been able to make serious withdrawals, given the level of violence at that time.

Despite some of the potential difficulties Obama faces in Iraq, Wittes thinks he will be eager to come to some kind of conclusion in the region, in order to pursue his other foreign policy initiatives.

“He’s put a lot of emphasis on the need to pursue al-Qaida in Afghanistan and Pakistan and to rebuild alliances around the world,” said Wittes. “If he’s going to do that, then he needs to reduce the extent to which the conflict in Iraq sucks up ... resources.”