Afghanistan: The Next Hundred Years' War?

The Iraq War ravaged U.S. troops for six years, but the cost of over 4,000 soldiers killed would pale in comparison to an Afghanistan war lasting a century. Micheal Yon, author and former Green Beret, believes that’s exactly how long it will take for U.S. troops to see the success they experienced in Iraq, if at all.

Yon, the author of “The Moment of Truth in Iraq,” discussed the wars and the challenges ahead for President-elect Barack Obama with American University graduate students on Thursday. He spoke via satellite while embedded with a unit at the U.S. Army Falcon base in south Baghdad. It's his fourth embed with U.S. troops since 2005.

“I’m not sure that we’re going to succeed there, quite frankly,” Yon said. “We’ve got some very serious, tough times ahead in Afghanistan.”

Yon disagrees with some U.S. and British officers who estimate it's going to take 10 to 25 more years to stabilize Afghanistan. "I'm thinking more like a century, this is truly like Jurassic Park once you leave the major cities," Yon said.

Such sentiment surprised many students because Yon staunchly supported the Iraq War effort as winnable. Victory and success could be measured by reduced violence and the installation of a democratic government, he argued in his book, and Americans must take the moral high ground and not leave the country until it is safe and secure for the Iraqi people.

On Dec. 31, the Iraqi government will decide whether it wants or needs the aid of U.S. troops any longer. If the parliament does not sign a pact to extend the status-of-forces agreement, then the U.N. mandate authorizing U.S. troop presence will expire – making their presence illegal.

“This could play into President-elect Obama’s hands in so far as if that agreement is not signed, then it’s kind of a done deal, we’re going to start pulling out because that’s really all there’s left to do,” Yon said.

Celebrating the Iraq War’s end as a homecoming for U.S. troops could be premature according to Yon. He spent last month embedded with a unit in Afghanistan and says more troops are needed there.

“I’ve had some confidence for some years now that Iraq could succeed,” Yon said. “We have a core of people here who believe in Iraq the country, whereas in Afghanistan it’s really more of an area than a country.”

The lack of national identity and the rural existence of 80 to 90 percent of its population, Yon says makes him uncertain about the outcome in Afghanistan.

“Most of the people in Afghanistan live out in the boondocks, I mean really out there,” Yon said. He's driven 1,000 miles around the country recently.

Yon said the Iraq War involved mostly urban combat, so U.S. troops could focus on centers that were relatively easy to reach. That’s not the case in Afghanistan.

The NATO allies haven’t made things easier either, according to Yon. German troops are precluded from getting into the areas where they could aid the French, who have been involved in combat.

While engaged east of Kabul, the French lost 10 soldiers and a MILAN anti-tank missile was taken by enemy combatants about two weeks ago. “We’ll probably be seeing that in the side of one of our vehicles shortly,” Yon said.

He said he believes the attack came as a surprise to the French because the area where they were stationed was considered to be safe when they first went out there. “Now it’s going the opposite way,” Yon said.